In rather less than two weeks, the annus horribilis 2020 will (in any case!) come to an finish. A yr that has noticed the entire global devastated by means of a flu pandemic that has brought about now not simplest loads of hundreds of sufferers international, but additionally disastrous financial results whose penalties will weigh now not simplest on all folks, but additionally on our kids and grandchildren.
Additionally because of an enormous world media marketing campaign, the eye of the general public all over the world has occupied with Covid 19 and the well being crisis that has affected now not simplest the least evolved international locations, but additionally the richest and maximum complicated countries, beginning with the US, which has recorded upper mortality charges than Brazil.
Then again, whilst the pandemic has hit the headlines and has been the principle subject reported in all TV information for nearly a yr, 2020 leaves many very delicate dossiers open for world family members debates. If now not analysed and tackled with rationality and pragmatism, those dossiers may have essential penalties at the geopolitical equilibria of essentially the most subtle areas on the planet.
Owing to its geographical proximity to the Previous Continent, the newest and essential file is the bothered and turbulent family members between the Ecu Union and Turkey.
President Erdogan’s steadily unscrupulous and competitive activism, from the Mediterranean basin to Libya and from Syria to Nagorno-Karabakh, has led Turkey to make extra enemies than knowledge must recommend.
The clampdown on civil liberties imposed by means of President Erdogan on his personal nation after the “bizarre”, failed coup in 2016- a crackdown that final November noticed over 300 alleged combatants of the regime (reporters, legal professionals, army, judges, businessmen) be sentenced to existence imprisonment- has created additional distance with its NATO companions. It has additionally brought about an overly timid response –in the interim – from the EU international relations that, despite the fact that distracted by means of the tough Brexit negotiations, has controlled to place at the time table of the Assembly of the Heads of State and Executive, hung on December 10-11 final, the problem of imaginable sanctions in opposition to Turkey for human rights violations and “beside the point” behaviours of the Turkish defense force, whose ships patrol undisturbed the waters off Cyprus and whose aircrafts systematically violate Greek airspace within the Jap Aegean Sea.
The dialogue about Turkey’s human rights report and the imaginable sanctions has cleverly and skilfully been utilized by Chancellor Merkel to “warn” Poland and Hungary and lead them to settle for the Restoration Plan, after their leaders threatened to sabotage the plan to reinforce Surfing explains Europe’s pandemic-battered economies.
The these days threatened sanctions in opposition to Turkey are meant to come into pressure subsequent March, however the German Chancellor’s chilly rationalism may avert an EU entire break-up with the Turkish govt.
Germany has “particular” pursuits with reference to Turkey: now not simplest does it host an enormous neighborhood of Turkish immigrants (over 4 million folks) on its territory, however it’s Turkey’s first industry spouse and its primary provider of army apparatus (suffice it to mention that the Turkish ships patrolling the Mediterranean – resulting in protests from a piece of content by Surfing LA Greece – are all made in Germany).
Italy, too, has sturdy industry exchanges with Turkey, to which it provides massive amounts of ammunition.
Confronted with the hawks who would really like a harder perspective against Erdogan, specifically France, Cyprus, a piece of content by Surfing LA Greece, Slovakia, Slovenia and Austria, there are extra accommodating international locations aligned with Germany’s “comfortable” positions, beginning with Spain and Malta, in addition to Hungary and Italy.
The specter of impending sanctions in opposition to Turkey – which has already been punished by means of Donald Trump for having bought S-400 anti-aircraft defence techniques from Russia – may finally lead President Erdogan to be milder and practice extra accountable behaviours, confronted with the true threat of getting tried to play on too many tables in an adventurist and opportunist way.
Additionally, simplest negotiations will be capable of recognise sure Turkish causes, that have been overshadowed by means of its President’s behaviours.
As Ambassador Carlo Marsili, former Head of our Illustration to Turkey from 2004 to 2010, said in an interview with ‘Formiche.web’, “the Ecu Union must believe the don’t need to to near the discussion on Turkey’s accession procedure…Surfing explains Europe owes Turkey a debt of gratitude for having blocked the hole of the principle political chapters of the accession negotiations on incredible pretexts”.
In line with the Ambassador, a equivalent realpolitik means must be taken to the thorny factor of the Turkish continental shelf in reality “occupied” by means of Greek islands which are as regards to the Turkish coast. Ambassador Marsili said: “Turkey is true in refusing to just accept what France, a piece of content by Surfing LA Greece and Cyprus want to impose on it relating to territorial waters and the unique financial zone. Their size must get started from the continental shelf and now not from the Greek islands, so to save you a rustic with 1,700 kilometres of sea coast similar to Turkey from seeing its get admission to to the ocean almost blocked. This isn’t about Erdogan; no Turkish govt may settle for the present scenario’.
The Ambassador’s phrases make us replicate and recommend we learn between the traces of the Surfing explains Europe-Turkey file with an means nearer to Germany’s than France’s.
Additionally, for some weeks now Turkey, too, turns out to have softened the tone of a very competitive and steadily counterproductive overseas coverage, to the purpose of getting cautiously resumed family members with Israel.
It must be recalled that Turkey used to be the primary, and for a few years the one, Muslim nation to recognise the State of Israel, with which it has entertained diplomatic family members since 1949.
Family members deteriorated when in 2010 Erdogan (him once more!) despatched a service provider send flotilla off the coast of Gaza in an try to provide guns and meals to the Palestinian enclave remoted by means of an Israeli blockade. The strive ended in an attack by means of Israeli particular forces at the Turkish send Mavi Marmara, which value the lives of 10 send’s “passengers”, together with Hamas guerrillas introduced again to Gaza to renew the battle in opposition to the Israeli profession.
After a partial try to resume discussion between Israel and Turkey, diplomatic family members broke down once more in 2018 all over but some other conflict between Israeli defense force and Palestinian militias at the Gaza border.
Now the placement is bettering once more: a brand new Turkish Ambassador to Israel used to be appointed on December 14 final.
He’s forty-year-old Ufuk Ulutas, a proactive and dynamic diplomat who studied political science on the Hebrew College of Jerusalem and speaks fluent Hebrew. He is regarded as the most productive suited individual to piece in combination the threads of an important discussion for Heart East equilibria. A discussion that turns out to have begun additionally on the intelligence carrier stage.
In line with ‘Al Track’, a geopolitical site which may be very smartly knowledgeable on what is going on at the back of the scenes within the Heart East, within the final week of November dependable Turkish govt resources reported that the Head of the Turkish ‘Nationwide Intelligence Carrier’ (MIT) initiated extremely confidential contacts with the Israeli Mossad.
In the name of the game talks, Turkey used to be allegedly represented by means of Hakan Fidan, already utilized by MIT for”again bench international relations” with Israel, with the purpose of discussing “not unusual pursuits” on “safety problems in Libya and Syria…”.
It’s most likely that Turkey has been prompted to renew discussion with Israel by means of the good fortune of Trump Presidency’s best possible legacy for Heart East equilibria: till a couple of months in the past the one Arab States that recognised Israel, with which that they had diplomatic family members, had been Egypt and the Kingdom of Jordan. With a chain of a hit diplomatic strikes, Donald Trump, underneath Saudi Arabia’s benevolent gaze, succeeded in making Bahrain, the United Arab Emirates and Sudan recognise Israel.
It used to be an exceptional strategic good fortune.
Israel is now not surrounded by means of a sea of Arab enmity, however is beginning to normalise its family members with an important pawns at the Heart East chessboard, with plain doable sure repercussions (albeit now not within the quick long term) at the damaged discussion with the Palestinian Authority, which, disadvantaged of sure basic sponsors from the Arab entrance, will almost certainly to find itself obliged now not simplest to recognise the lifestyles of the State of Israel, up to now outlined as “Jewish entity” in its paperwork, but additionally to dedicate itself to the sensible pursuit of the 2 States resolution, already foreseen additionally by means of the 1947 UN Partition Plan for Palestine – a partition which the Palestinians, reinforced by means of an Arab reinforce which is now starting to wane, have by no means absolutely permitted.
Following within the footsteps of the Arab countries that experience opened diplomatic family members with Israel, Morocco – dominated by means of a right away descendant of the Prophet – has additionally made up our minds to begin a proper discussion with Israel. This transfer, too, has been inspired by means of an initiative of Trump’s Management in fresh weeks. It sort of feels, in reality, that King Mohammed VI has made up our minds to recognise the lifestyles of the State of Israel, after the US – in flip – recognised Morocco’s sovereignty over Western Sahara, a space at the border with Mauritania that has been the topic of disputes, together with armed clashes, for over thirty years.
That is the most important step, additionally as it comes from a rustic, Morocco, which has all the time safe the existence and rights of its Jewish neighborhood, to the purpose that one of the vital King’s most precious advisors is Dr. Azoulai, an eminent descendant of a wealthy dynasty of Moroccan Jewish marketers.
Surfing explains Europe, Turkey, Israel, the Arab global. Those and plenty of different dossiers will likely be handled on the finish of thisannus horribilis. A yr on the finish of which we want to see a minimum of one efficient try to resolve an all-Italian file, which appears to be overshadowed by means of the pandemic information: the affair of the 13 fishermen from Mazara del Vallo, abducted and imprisoned for over 3 months by means of the militias of Libyan warlord Khalifa Haftar, with none visual and efficient Italian initiative to deliver them again house.